Public Policy Polling (likely voters, 7/9-11):
Bob Conley (D): 21
Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 52
Mark McBride (I): 10
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Without McBride (the GOP-turned-independent mayor of Myrtle Beach) on the ballot, the head-to-head looks like this:
Bob Conley (D): 32
Linsey Graham (R): 54
Now, Bob Conley isn’t much of a Democrat. In fact, he was last seen voting for Ron Paul in South Carolina’s Republican primary, and has even served on the executive committee of the Horry County Republican Party in recent years.
While many South Carolinians are clearly not in love with Graham, this race isn’t likely to get off the ground any time soon.
In other, and more interesting news, PPP finds that McCain is leading Obama by a mere 45-39 margin in South Carolina. Strong margins with African-Americans (77-10) and voters between the ages of 18-29 (54-32) fuel Obama’s strength here. I don’t think it’s likely that Obama will win, but I find it especially heartening that the younger generation of voters in states like South Carolina and Mississippi are poised to turn the page from the GOP dominance of their parents’ generation.
I know this isn’t relevant to this diary, but wasn’t the filling deadline for 2nd quarter fundraising last night at midnight? Or is it tonight? I thought it was last night, but more than half of the candidates have not filed, or the FEC hasn’t updated their website? Also when is the Michigan and Missouri pre-primary filling deadlines?
The poll was 57% woman, 43% men. Women support Obama more than men do, so that’s a big reason why it is so close. Not sure if turnout is expected to by 57% women and 43% men.